The DIG preview: A game of inches

Editor's note: This is a special preview of The Dig, a weekly note from Digital Insurance editor-in-chief Nathan Golia that is sent directly to subscribers. Sign up to receive it weekly in your inbox by registering for the site and then selecting it in Newsletter Preferences.

Last week, a cluster of tornadoes cut across central Texas, near where I live. This used to feel like a bit of an anomaly, but after a few years in the area, it’s become part of the rhythm of life.

In fact, weathering these storms (for lack of a better term) has evolved into a bit of a ritual. The outbreaks usually occur in the late afternoon or evening. My family huddles in the innermost hallway of our house. The kids get on iPads to distract themselves while my wife and I watch local news coverage. We watch and listen for the name of our town. It’s usually mentioned a couple times. But so far, we’ve escaped major damage.

Once we made it through, my thoughts turned – somewhat unconsciously – to the new data point that this outbreak was going to present to insurers. The Austin-American Statesman referred to the “unusual origins” of these tornadoes – rather than coming up from the Mexican border or over from the Hill Country to the west, the line that came through the area started along a fault line, the Balcones Escarpment, which is near San Antonio.

I don’t know if that data means something for the future. But I do know that it will be entered into the analytic models and algorithms that insurers use to establish the risk of the area. And this area is growing rapidly. A tornado cut across what is already the most populated part of the metropolitan area, and another ran through a region that is supposed to add a major factory and thousands of jobs in the next decade.

Two years of pandemic life have led consumers to be more hyper-aware of the risks to their life and property than ever. But people go where the jobs are, and the jobs are in the path of these storms more acutely than ever. Housing prices are skyrocketing, driving up repair costs. Insurers will have to be adept in using the data at their disposal to hit a sweet spot for rates and coverages for these areas. It sounds like quite a daunting task.

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