What are the true costs of the LA wildfires?

A restaurant, behind a row of barrels, burns during the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles on Jan. 7, 2025
A restaurant burns during the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles on Jan. 7, 2025. A fast-moving wildfire ripped through the affluent neighborhood, forcing thousands of people to evacuate.
Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg

Estimates of the damage caused by the Los Angeles wildfires in January have varied, depending on who you ask, and what is being included in the estimate.

The estimates for insured losses are about $30 billion, but even that can range billions of dollars above or below that figure. Once total economic impact is considered, that number balloons into the $250 billion to $275 billion range, according to AccuWeather.

Property loss estimates are solely the value of property damaged, whether it was covered or not, while insured loss figures are only claims payouts. However, that can include other payments made to policyholders in relation to their lost property, such as coverage of temporary housing or business interruptions.

Katherine Hempstead of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
Katherine Hempstead, senior policy advisor, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Numbers for what rebuilding will actually cost cannot really be given accurately yet, according to Katherine Hempstead, a senior policy advisor at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and author of "Uncovered: The Story of Insurance in America."

"One factor that will play out over time is how long it really takes to rebuild, and how much prices for construction and rental housing will go up in the next few years," she said. "There are estimates of those trends built into the estimates of insured losses, but they may be lower than or higher than what actual costs will look like. There are also probably unknowns about health and environmental impacts that we are estimating now, but don't really know yet."

Tom Johansmeyer of Price Forbes Re
Tom Johansmeyer, global head of index classes at reinsurance broker Price Forbes Re

In late January, Verisk estimated the insured losses for the LA wildfires as between $28 billion to $35 billion. Tom Johansmeyer, global head of index classes at reinsurance broker Price Forbes Re in Bermuda, said insured losses would exceed $30 billion. The UCLA Anderson School of Management estimated insured losses at more than that, at about $45 billion, in figures last updated March 3.

By mid-February, CoreLogic estimated property losses at $35 billion to $45 billion. UCLA now estimates property and capital losses as higher, at $76 billion to $131 billion.

Another figure to consider when thinking about the scope of the LA wildfire damage is the protection gap, according to Hempstead. That is the percentage of estimated property losses that are not insured, and for the wildfires, it appears to be about 40%, she added.

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Wildfires California Property and casualty insurance Climate change
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