Thomas Holzheu, chief economist for the Americas of Swiss Re, says that this widening gap exists for a number of complicated reasons that vary by specific regions and perils; issues like risk perception, product design and affordability contribute greatly to the protection gap.
For emerging economies, Holzheu says, "It's a question of affordability, and it's also a question of… familiarity with insurance products, financial literacy, the development of institutions like a distribution network and products that are attractive for a large share of the low income population. The rapid urbanization of emerging economies is leaving the demand and the infrastructure of the insurance industry behind, and there's a 'catch-up' to do."
This year's estimates indicate a large
"Risk is abstract…there's a lot of psychology that trips us in evaluating [risk] properly. So these risk perception issues are particularly an issue around the risks of earthquakes and inland flood areas," Holzheu explains. "You simply don't think about it, but then you have extreme flooding from rainfall... in areas and regions that are not generally considered to be at risk."
Similarly, the
"Modeling is an evolving science," Holzheu states. "For some perils, we already know much better [of] what's happening, because they happen more frequently. Other perils are more scarce, in terms of observations… and events that don't often happen can simply have less data points to work with. And some models are simply terribly complicated to model."
For insurers, data points like dense population and strong economic development are "both driving the accumulation of building values, commercial and personal. And that's a big driver of exposure. So, identifying the right trends is quite critical. So you [must] combine this science model and the economic input, and be sure that as an industry that you have the current exposure properly assessed," Holzheu says.