How climate change risk is reshaping the homeowners insurance market

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The effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced, both globally and domestically. In the U.S., the consequences of changing weather patterns and climate-related disasters are impacting various aspects of the economy, with homeowners in particular feeling the cost in a very direct way.   

Average homeowners insurance rates increased 18.85% in 2023, according to a study by Guaranteed Rate Insurance LLC, which examined five years of data, including almost 50,000 policies and more than 70 carriers.

While the increase varies by state, the biggest hike occurred in Louisiana at 34.3%. The Pelican State is one of the most likely to be impacted by climate change, driving increases in premiums and a decrease in the availability of insurance itself.

Bundling with other policies like auto has on average provided homeowner insurance discounts of 5%-20%, according to Guaranteed Rate's head of insurance Jeff Wingate, though this has been less available in Florida, California, Texas, New York and New Jersey — states where fear of fire and flood risks have seen carriers pull out. 

Read more: Climate change is causing an insurance crisis in Louisiana

In Florida, increases in insurance premiums and homeowners association fees are having a negative effect on the value of condos and the sale of condo units, which fell 6.8% in January from one year earlier. Condo price movements in the state are also bucking growth seen in the rest of the U.S., according to Redfin, the online real estate brokerage. The median price of a Florida unit came in at $317,000 in January compared to $340,000 nationwide. 

Read more: How climate risks are influencing home buyers today

Despite the challenges, Florida also provides an example of how regulators and insurers are fighting back. The state Office of Insurance Regulation authorized six additional P&C insurers to enter the market in 2023, after the Florida Legislature approved reforms to the state's insurance industry.

However, there are concerns about the effectiveness and scale of these initiatives going forward. "Gov. DeSantis has unveiled his 2024 Florida budget proposal, which includes $431 million in property insurance relief for citizens," wrote David Kotok, co-founder and CIO of Sarasota, Florida-headquartered Cumberland Advisors in a December blog post. "Four-hundred-and-thirty-million dollars for a trillion-dollar risk? Readers: you decide. Florida homeowners and businesses: you decide, too."

While all parties recognize the urgent need to respond to the impact of climate change on the economy and the insurance industry, the question remains, will the concerted action be enough? 

Catch up on these stories and all of our recent coverage of climate change in the industry.

AI-generated illustration showing aerial view of a flood-ravaged village with submerged houses.
Virtual Art Studio - stock.adobe.com

Data reporting pushback could frustrate climate-related insurance solutions

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) issued a call for property market data from insurers in March, which is meant to address the impact of climate change on insurance, and concerns about availability and affordability.

However, the initiative is getting resistance from some of the very states, such as Louisiana, Florida and Texas, which stand to benefit from the data collection, Charlie Sidoti, executive director of InnSure, a nonprofit innovation hub that develops climate-related risk solutions for the insurance industry, told Michael Shashoua, senior editor at Digital Insurance.

NAIC's data call will help the organization get a more accurate understanding of the "protection gap," which refers to 50% of all catastrophe losses being uninsured nationally in the U.S. A few states not collecting data is a problem, but if that becomes as many as half of all U.S. states, the impact for insuring climate change losses could be global, Sidoti said.

Read more: Property market data reporting refusals hamper refusers' insurability
Mortgage property insurance dream moving home and real estate concept.Female calculate finance expenditures on machine, manage plan family household budget, insurance or loan real estate or property.
JD8 - stock.adobe.com

Extreme weather insurance costs rise amid overall homeowner rate increases

The average premium for homeowners insurance rose by $273 to $1,723 in 2023, up by 18.85% on the previous year, according to research by Guaranteed Rate Insurance LLC, the homeowners insurance subsidiary of mortgage lender Guaranteed Rate.

The independent agent's study on rates also found that Guaranteed Rate's customers increased their use of private coverage for flood insurance by 163% in the past year for zones where it's mandatory.

This finding bore out other research suggesting the take-up of private flood coverage that some homeowners also need or want has grown as the shift to risk-based pricing in the national program has increased some premiums and its funding has become tenuous.

"Extreme weather events have become increasingly common and account for 70% of losses, so insurers have seen costs rise in many areas," Jeff Wingate, executive vice president and head of insurance at Guaranteed Rate, told Bonnie Sinnock, capital markets editor at Digital Insurance's sister publication National Mortgage News, via email.

Read more: Homeowners insurance rates rose nearly 19% in 2023
Florida condo
Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg

Buyers hold off on Florida condos in wake of climate-related risks

A rise in insurance and homeowners association expenses caused by the impact of severe weather and climate-related disasters in Florida is making the idea of condo ownership in the state unappealing or even unaffordable for many.

The Insurance Information Institute found costs for coverage increased 102% over the last three years in Florida, making them three times higher than the national average. While driving policy costs up, the impact of climate-related disasters also led Farmers Insurance to cease opening new policies for state residents.

Meanwhile, HOA fees are jumping higher at a faster clip than previously to address the risk from natural disasters. "Condos that used to have a $400 monthly maintenance fee may now have a $700 fee," Juan Castro, an Orlando Redfin agent, told Spencer Lee, a reporter with Digital Insurance's sister publication National Mortgage News. "It's causing buyers to rethink their plans."

Read more: Insurance costs, fees drive down Florida condo values
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Eva Marie Uzcategui

Florida acts on insurance challenges caused by climate risk, but is it enough?

The property and casualty insurance crisis in Florida gained some relief last year after the state Office of Insurance Regulation gave approval for six additional P&C insurers to enter the market. "Gov. Ron DeSantis signed historic legislation to strengthen Florida's property insurance market," said OIR Commissioner Michael Yaworksy in January, citing three bills in May 2023 said to strengthen consumer protections and expand the state's home hardening and hazard mitigation programs.

However, David Kotok, co-founder and CIO of Cumberland Advisors, said DeSantis'  budget proposals this year didn't go far enough in addressing the state's property insurance problems, and the risks that are driving premiums skyward. In a December blog post, Kotok cited a letter from Senate Budget Committee chair Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., noting that the Florida insurance situation appears "to have grown particularly dire."

Read more: Florida regulator let 6 more firms enter state insurance market in '23
Historic Fires In Boulder County Destroy 991 Buildings
Chet Strange/Bloomberg

Climate risk modeling could be the answer to escalating premiums

Wildfire zones in California are far from immune to rising insurance costs."I was working with a client who saw a premium increase from $230,000 four years ago, to $1.5 million in 2023," Andrew Foote, senior consultant at risk management consultancy Sigma7, told Digital Insurance's Shashoua.

Industry analysts and service providers, however, believe that businesses and homeowners may find solutions to such costly climate risk and disaster coverage challenges in technology, which can make it possible to model climate risks with greater accuracy and do more to mitigate them.

"We're pivoting toward figuring out ways to prevent losses from happening in advance, while at the same time advising our clients on methods to make their properties more insurable than others in their community down the road," said Jim Marks of insurance broker HUB Private Client Group.

 Read more: Insurers and regulators look for climate model tech and data to mitigate risks